Monday, August 26, 2013

Fantasy Draft 101

The third week of the 2013-14 NFL preseason is officially in the books. This also marks the beginning of the busiest week for fantasy football drafts. Preseason game three is better known as the dress rehearsal. The only time all preseason that each team will play their starters (ie...the people you're looking to draft) into the third quarter. Position battles are also largely decided by then, so waiting until this week gives everyone the most information possible heading into their draft.

If this is your first time participating in fantasy football, or you're looking to break out of the cellar, then you're in luck. As a disclaimer, there are too many factors involved to predict championship success. But the following fantasy draft principles will, at the very least, have you in playoff contention as your season winds down.

Conservative early, risky late:

We all think we know our football, but the first few rounds of the draft is not the time to stoke your ego. Resist the temptation to deviate from the draft board provided by the hosting site. They are not only accurate, they also provide valuable statistics from the player's previous season. Make sure you get a qb in the first 4 rounds. Good qb's win games. Great qb's win playoff games. The top ten qb's are usually listed on the top ten of the qb draft board. The first few rounds is also not the time to show your loyalty to a friend, relative, colleague, or classmate that is listed waaaaaaaay down the bottom of the list. As I stated earlier, the draft board is pretty accurate....he'll be available later....trust me.

Once you've drafted your starting lineup (excluding the kicker...we'll discuss him shortly), then you can take chances on risky players (inconsistent, but dominate when they do perform) or rookies with no statistical data. This is also the time to take a flyer on that gut pick...the homer pick (player from your favorite team)...and yes...your friend, relative, colleague, or classmate.

Watch The Bye Weeks:

As you begin to build your reserve roster, make sure you factor the player's bye week.  The bye week is usually located in the far right corner of the player's stat box. This is often overlooked, but essential to surviving the dreaded bye week season. Regardless of a backup player's talent, he will be useless to your lineup if he's on bye the same week as your starter at that position. Spacing out your bye weeks will also help you navigate through the various injuries your players may fall subject to...and yes...there will be injuries.

Read The Rules:

This is especially crucial for participants of multiple leagues. Scoring is customized by the league owner, make sure you know what positions get what points. For example, return specialists...even the great ones...are virtually useless if your league does not score points for return yards. Points per reception (or not) will move certain players up or down your board as well.

Defense / Kicker:

If you do not land one of the 3 or 4 top tier defenses, then it's better to add depth elsewhere until the final picks of the draft. Your kicker should always be taken with the last pick. He's the kicker for goodness sake.

Good luck!   follow @plcolter



Sunday, August 18, 2013

Fantasy profile: Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald

The fantasy football draft season is upon us, and there's a growing trend of taking your qb in the early mid round range. If this is your strategy this year, then Carson Palmer is worth considering.

Palmer quietly finished last season as a top ten qb, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 22 tds. And he didn't have Larry Fitzgerald in Oakland last year. Speaking of Fitzgerald, don't be surprised if he's the comeback player of the year this season. To put last year in prospective.....

In 15 games, Palmer's 4,018 passing yards were more than all of Arizona's qb's combined (3,383). He also doubled their combined touchdown production (22-11). And Arizona trolled out five different quarterbacks last year.

Wow.

No wonder Fitzgerald averaged less than 50 yards receiving per game last year with only four tds. Further proof that Fitzgerald was sabotaged by shoddy qb play...

Fitzgerald had 71 catches, but was targeted 153 times. So...if Fitzgerald was not even in the top 25 in dropped passes last year, then one can assume that none of those five qb's could throw.

That shouldn't be a problem for Fitzgerald with Palmer under center in Arizona this year. In fact, the last time the Cardinals threw for over 4,000 yards Fitzgerald put up 97 catches and 13 tds. Expect numbers closer to that, than last season for Larry.

Palmer would make for a great mid round qb insurance policy if you plan on drafting a read option qb in the first three rounds. If you plan on making Palmer your centerpiece, then you may want to take him a round earlier. There is a serious drop off after his tier of qb.

Fitzgerald should be considered and drafted as an elite fantasy receiver this year. If Palmer stays healthy, you won't be disappointed.

Good luck.     follow @plcolter


Saturday, August 17, 2013

Fantasy Profile: Cam Newton...the forgotten man?

Heisman trophy winner. Collegiate national champion. Number 1 pick in the NFL draft. Rookie of the year. Afterthought just three years later?

Welcome to the NFL Cam Newton.

A media darling just a few years ago, Cam Newton has quickly been replaced by the likes of newcomers RGIII, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick....and for good reason. Those four qb's took their teams to the playoffs last year. Newton's Panthers have improved each of the past two seasons, but not to the point of playoff contention.

But that's in the real word. From a fantasy football prospective, Newton should definitely stay on your radar...especially if you're looking to take a qb in the early mid round range.

 A growing consensus among colleagues would suggest that this year's fantasy qb class is the deepest it's ever been...giving owners an opportunity to stockpile superstar talent in other positions with those crucial first three picks. One particular colleague used that strategy last year...and damn near won the whole thing.

But I digress.

Newton will be available in most leagues in the 4th round, and may become not only a steal..but the centerpiece of your championship contending team.

In his first two seasons in the league, Cam Newton has put up over 9,300 total yards and 62 touchdowns. Throw in the fact that he's remained remarkably durable (never missed a start), and Cam Newton becomes more than a safe mid round pick.

Two more things should aid Newton, an improved defense and the division Carolina plays in. The defense should give Cam more scoring opportunities, and we all know that Atlanta and New Orleans will light up your scoreboard.

That's at least four potential shootouts right there...a fantasy qb's dream.

Welcome back fantasy football. Good luck to you all as you prepare for your draft.     follow @plcolter


Monday, August 5, 2013

Revisionist history could backfire on Munchak, Titans

I just read an interesting article. It profiled Titans head coach Mike Munchak, and his quest to teach his current team the importance of embracing the Houston Oilers past and tradition. Owner Bud Adams brought the Oilers to Tennessee in 1997, before finally settling into their Nashville home in 1999.

Munchak has renovated the training facility to pay homage to the to the past great Oilers and Titans. He is passionate about the importance of embracing tradition. I'm all for that from a nostalgia standpoint...but the next quote troubled me.

“I want guys to know, and feel, like they are a part of something,” Munchak said. “I don’t want anyone to think they will be forgotten, and the men who paved the way shouldn’t be forgotten. Time as a football player, it’s short-lived. These decades are flying by.

Munchak continued with....

“We’ve been here as the Titans (since 1999), and we’ve already seen a lot of guys come and go. This place is special, so just don’t take things for granted, because it goes by fast.”

Is it just me? Or does Munchak sound like he has a lifetime contract? Um...Mike..sir? If no one has told you...your behind is planted firmly on the hot seat...and you have this season to get it done. This season only. If the Titans stumble again this year, then Munchak will be the next forgotten Titan.

With all due respect to Warren Moon and Earl Campbell, they ain't saving your job this year.

But I digress.

Again...while I do not object to remembering the past...the Titans seem to be married to it. And unless you're a History professor...that is not a recipe for success.

Case in point.

Jeff Fisher was hired from within to replace his predecessor as head coach in 1994. Umpteen years later, Mike Munchak, Titans offensive line coach, was hired to replace Fisher. So when it came to hiring his staff...what did Munchak do?

Yep. Hire from within.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with that...if you're winning Super Bowls. But if you're not...like Tennessee...then maybe the tried and true way should be scrapped for an outside the box thinker. Or in the Titans case...and outside the organization thinker.

I hope Munchak succeeds, that means the Titans succeeded. But if he doesn't, it may be time for an overhaul. Brilliant new coaching minds on both sides of the ball are popping up everywhere now. 

Credit Tennessee for finally stepping up and spending some money this off season to bring in some much needed talent. But don't stop there...don't start looking back now.

There's no championships back there.

Titans beat writer Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean contributed to this blog.     follow @plcolter

 

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Why Cowboys fans should watch HOF Game

It's finally here for Dallas Cowboys fans. The 2013-14 preseason officially gets underway tonight with the annual Hall of Fame game. No, you won't see many of your favorite players (if any) tonight...and for good reason. This is a game for the die hard fan, eager to get a glimpse of America's "new look" team. For you sir or madam..a few things to look for tonight.

The Defense: Tonight will be the (somewhat) unveiling of the Cowboys' new 4-3 scheme, installed by new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. I say somewhat because, obviously, we will not see much of the starting unit. Tackling will more than likely be atrocious as well.

And that's to be expected.

What we're looking for is a barometer of how much the team has learned this new system. Will there be a ton of blown coverages and missed assignments? Will confusion cause the defense to burn up all of Garrett's timeouts? If the reserves have a solid understanding of at least the basic defensive package, then one can assume the starting unit does as well.

Joseph Randle / Kendial Lawrence: The Cowboys had one of the worst rushing attacks in the league last season, averaging less than 80 yards a game. DeMarco Murray is healthy (stop laughing) and will be the unquestioned starter week 1. With his injury history though, it's unlikely that we'll see much of Murray in the preseason. Last year's back up, Felix Jones, is now an Eagle...so Dallas will be looking to some rookies to possibly fill that role.

Enter Joseph Randle and Kendial Lawrence.

Both Randle and Lawrence had productive final years in college, averaging 5 plus yards a carry respectively. Lawrence, a rookie free agent out of Missouri, ran an impressive 4.33 at his pro day. Lawrence has also shown an ability to catch the ball in mini camps...and could be used in a variety of ways if he develops. Randle, a 5th round pick out of Oklahoma State, was also a reliable receiver at the collegiate level. Both will get plenty of opportunities to prove themselves over the next five preseason games.

Dwayne Harris: The wide receiving unit is set at starter with Bryant and Austin. Jason Witten will once again anchor the tight end group. What the Cowboys need is a reliable third wide receiver, and Harris should get plenty of opportunities to fill that role...starting tonight. Rookie 3rd round pick Terrance Williams will miss tonight's (and possibly next week's game at Oakland) with a concussion, which increases Harris' chances to play. Williams won't be out for long, so Harris will need to impress early....and often.

Welcome back NFL. We're ready for some football.     follow @plcolter